The largest MLP convention in France, BronyDays in Paris, will not take place in 2016. Neither will the PonySouth con in Toulouse. The organising group, Hoofmade Events, made the announcement a couple of weeks ago, but I'd missed it until Silver Broom pointed it out yesterday. The official post is in French, but here are some of the key points:
Team fatigue is a major reason for the announcement. Running a convention inevitably means a great deal of work, and even with public support it's hard to stay motivated indefinitely.
Attendances for both conventions fell significantly in 2015, making running them a riskier business. The Hoofmade team have made a conscious decision not to speculate on why this might be, as they want to avoid being drawn into "state of the fandom" arguments·
Hoofmade Events will continue, perhaps with smaller events such as 3PS (Party Pinkie Pie Style). Also, the PonySouth team are working on a new project, the details of which will be published soon.
Some interesting stuff there. The first point won't come as a surprise to anyone in the UK, given that a major reason for BUCK taking 2015 off was the huge workload staff members were taking on. Sooner or later, people have to put their health first and say "no more", and that moment has arrived.
Regarding the second point, it will be very interesting indeed to see how many people BUCK 2016 attracts. UK PonyCon enjoyed a record attendance in 2015, and BronyScot was also highly successful, but they're smaller events – and, in UK PonyCon's case, not tied exclusively to the G4/brony part of the MLP fandom.
Unlike Hoofmade, I will talk briefly about the fandom itself. I think the signs are that it is indeed shrinking, and it may be that (at least in Europe) the big extravaganzas' days are numbered. Some people suspect this year's BUCK may be the last, and in truth I wouldn't be entirely surprised.
That's not to say we should become downcast, though. Even if our fandom's medium-term future is as a considerably smaller, quieter place, that doesn't mean it will become a wasteland. G1 fans are still around after more than 30 years, so we G4 fans should be inspired by their example!