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This is a good question, lets weigh the strengths and weaknesses.

Alicorns are of course op compared to any other race but due to there only being 5 of them they are doomed to win battles but lose the war.

Earthponies are strong and resilient and good farmers which are all good perks but I don't think they are enough to make up for their lack of magical abilities.

Unicorns have their magic going for them and they would likely have a small number of unicorns strong enough to go toe to toe with an alicorn (Like Starlight Glimmer as seen in the show) but the average unicorn is of course much weaker, I would say they are the second most likely race to win (teleportation, cloud walking and turning your foes weapons in to teacups is very helpful) but I see the last remaining main pony race having even better chances.

Pegasi would be my pick for the likeliest winner, this comes down to two big advantages they have, flight and weather control, with these two combined they would be able to effectively choose where when and in what weather conditions to pick a fight and rain a mix of lightning arrows hail and spears on to their enemies stuck knee deep in mud due to heavy rains they created, heck they don't necessarily need to fight at all just send the worst weather towards your enemy and let disease and the elements cripple their armies. This would also deny earth ponies their farming advantage since the pegasi could kill their crops with either too much or little rain, too cold or hot weather or just a tornado trough their fields. They also seem to have a militaristic history before the unification of the 3 tribes. I think only unicorns, changelings and dragons would have a realistic chance against them but I'd say overall they would be the likeliest winners. the rest of the non pony races are too weak, too few in numbers or just cant counter the pegasi advantages.

@wren
Luna is for ceremonial purposes only and, at this point, they both prefer it this way.

@Background Pony #4D74
implying luna is allowed to do anything

@wren
[autism]akshully they're diarchs 'cos there's two of them, a monarch is only one[/autism]

reminder

@Background Pony #32A3

there's one race the pony race.

@wren
I expected better from you wren. there's one race the pony race. remove everything else.

REMOVE BONEHEADS AND FEATHER DUSTERS.
TERRA FIRMA. TERRA FIRMA.

@Background Pony #8DEF
What if the sub ponies are kinky and want to be removed, roughly?

@Background Pony #8DEF
yes, the earth pony race will come together and remove the sub-ponies (the hornswagglers and wingboners)

>No one said that the pony race would come together to remove the sub-ponies
I'm disappointed in y'all

The new pony movie was all about starting a race war.

PoneHoWa

@Background Pony #AC43
fuck you zigga u aint fuckin tonite

@Background Pony #B7D2

All residents of Equestria are clearly insane. TLDR [s]They all win, depending on circumstances.[/s]
Unihorns have violent lasor blasts with magic spewing everywhere. On the other hand they have lasers, and time travel, and teleportation, and weird spells that just work.
Pegisussikussus are wingy, and while they do weather stuff growing things is not a forte. Raiders, pirates, and vagabonds, maybe a military but at the current tech level the playing field is more equal. They loose the flight advantage. I mean weather power is destructive.
Earth pone they stronk, have apples, can use tech, the backbone of society. The Earth pony culture is the least likely to implode, thus indoctrination and turning the young (random pony babies from Earth pony parents, inti their own).
Chungus horny wing ponies… individually kinda okay for a direct confrontation. While they could do a scorched earth policy they can't keep it up forever. Also has all the stuffs. Considering that all alicorns so far are female, they need to get the seed to breed (assuming they can). Basically spawn as many uber pones as possible. Unlikely to win vs everyone else. Unless there is friendship and magic or some bs like that.
The grabbag of horrors, and Spike. It all comes down to numbers and how good ensuring saftey. The monsters and huge animals are tough and dumb to an extent. Dorguns can fly, breath fire, are immune to lava, and can grow immensely. They just don't care units they can get something. Griffs they have… uhh… talons, and wings. Both don't friendship good. ZI- I mean Zebras' are rare in Equestria, potions for every occasion. Buffalo does what a buffalow wants. Windegos, race war means good eats nom nom freeze them all. The various side characters could pose a problem. Discord wins this engagement before becoming bored. Changlings can zerg rush. Hippyfaggot Changlings create energy ex nilo by sharing it with each other. Put them into a giant hamster wheel and watch the infinite power in motion. Mirror Magic, temporary means of everhthing has gone to shit. Excaping the mirror is easier than craming eveeyone important inside.

Based

hors sex????? yese

@Soft Lava
Don't make me Google a video of an IRL horse solo j/o session.

@Soft Lava
pretty sure you're mixing up earth ponies with zebras

Earth ponies can't sew clothing.
Earth ponies can't ride a bicycle.
Earth ponies can't play a piano.
Earth ponies can't cook food.
Earth ponies can't use a phone.
Earth ponies can't masturbate.

Earth ponies CAN play basketball.
Earth ponies CAN do fisting.
Earth ponies CAN smash a cabbage.
Earth ponies CAN depend on you.

That's why you depend on them.

…

Earth ponies. Living to your fullest. (TM)

It is a tough call. The Pegasi do have some tactical advantages, namely that they can alter weather and have a relatively safe haven from counter attacks. I don't think they have the staying power that they once did when they were based on more of a war class structure. Still, aerial combat can be a devastating advantage needed to secure vital resources or conduct quick and effective guerilla warfare.

Unicorns would be a logical step for most people, however, most unicorns have a very limited range of magic they can conduct. Their war readiness would be in worse shape unless they tap into the wealth of the unicorn elite in Canterlot for example. Even then, only a third of their specialized work force is available now, a decent chunk of the missing labor field being construction, weapon smiths, and food production. The could retrain themselves to take over these industries, but that would take time that might not be there in a war.

Alicorns can't really be considered. It has not been made clear at all how they reproduce in the show, so even with lifespan at least in the thousands, they can't maintain everything themselves, so if they do pull a win with enhanced power, then they won't exactly have much to live with in the aftermath. The only way around this is if they enslave the defeated races instead of genocide, in which case, they would have to form a police state to avoid a massive unified effort against them.

The other shown races in the show are not much of a threat. The yaks smash things, but especially pegasi can halt their advance and lay siege to any territory they take. Buffalo had a stand still for a bit in Appleoosa, but they don't have the numbers to continue on any long term conflict. Zebra have not been explored enough to say, but clearly they are not great in number in Equestria. Dragons are a bit of a threat, but any mix of bribery and intelligence can see a victory over them. Griffons would likely profit over the war rather than participate. Hippogriffs have a navy and can transform into both aerial and amphibious creatures, but they are outclassed in any attempt to invade Equestria proper. Their only hope is that the race war happens to near completion and then they strike the survivor. Changelings would be cause for concern if this was before the events of the season 6 finale, but as we see after that event, they have resigned to anti-conflict mentality. They would be fighting an uphill battle with with powerful transformations and disguises with their experience on the battlefield basically deprogrammed. Kirin are full isolationists and I don't think they would even be aware that a race war started unless it was brought down on their home. Not enough is know about their unicorn like magic and if that is powerful enough to rival unicorns, but their fire transformation into niriks is the main draw of their combat potential. Only problem is that they are prone to infighting, making coordinated attacks harder, especially against the rest of the races that have actual armies.

Earth ponies are my personal bet on this conflict. They would likely struggle against each opponent they face, but they also have specialized ponies in just about every field that is needed to make society work, as well as enhanced strength in several members of their race, a magical connection with nature to secure food, and they hold the biggest connection to their ancestors' way of life, meaning they have the pioneer and fighting spirit the rest of the races have slowly abandoned. Bringing the fight to their turn is more of a challenge as they are not only in towns and cities, but they have spread across the entirety of Equestria. They can easily regroup at any number of locations and would have homefield advantages just about in every circumstance, the main weaknesses being pegasi and dragon aerial attacks, which are harder to counter with their current technology level. To crush the earth pony spirit, you will have to take every inch of Equestria soil. If they pull a win, their society would be most fit to rebuild and prosper again.

@𝚽σ𝜏mares
there aren't pegasus zebras or unicorn zebras. they're a different race

Do zebras count as a subset of earth ponies or are they merely a coat pattern that can be of any race?

ok what about the breezies tho?

also there's another species that could ravage a couple tribes if things got out of hoof

All residents of Equestria are clearly insane. TLDR [s]They all win, depending on circumstances.[/s]
Unihorns have violent lasor blasts with magic spewing everywhere. On the other hand they have lasers, and time travel, and teleportation, and weird spells that just work.
Pegisussikussus are wingy, and while they do weather stuff growing things is not a forte. Raiders, pirates, and vagabonds, maybe a military but at the current tech level the playing field is more equal. They loose the flight advantage. I mean weather power is destructive.
Earth pone they stronk, have apples, can use tech, the backbone of society. The Earth pony culture is the least likely to implode, thus indoctrination and turning the young (random pony babies from Earth pony parents, inti their own).
Chungus horny wing ponies… individually kinda okay for a direct confrontation. While they could do a scorched earth policy they can't keep it up forever. Also has all the stuffs. Considering that all alicorns so far are female, they need to get the seed to breed (assuming they can). Basically spawn as many uber pones as possible. Unlikely to win vs everyone else. Unless there is friendship and magic or some bs like that.
The grabbag of horrors, and Spike. It all comes down to numbers and how good ensuring saftey. The monsters and huge animals are tough and dumb to an extent. Dorguns can fly, breath fire, are immune to lava, and can grow immensely. They just don't care units they can get something. Griffs they have… uhh… talons, and wings. Both don't friendship good. ZI- I mean Zebras' are rare in Equestria, potions for every occasion. Buffalo does what a buffalow wants. Windegos, race war means good eats nom nom freeze them all. The various side characters could pose a problem. Discord wins this engagement before becoming bored. Changlings can zerg rush. Hippyfaggot Changlings create energy ex nilo by sharing it with each other. Put them into a giant hamster wheel and watch the infinite power in motion. Mirror Magic, temporary means of everhthing has gone to shit. Excaping the mirror is easier than craming eveeyone important inside.

Draonies are clearly the best.